Wednesday, May 21, 2008

The Bulls are #1

Wow. I wonder how this will play out. They take Beasley and they have a problem. They take Rose and they have a problem because of Hinrich. Who do you put on the floor? With Beasley, they already have a log jam at power forward and at small forward. No matter how you slice it, it puts someone on the bench or the trading block. Deng's shooting isn't developed enough to move him to the 2 from the 3. Though Beasley's shooting probably is... But if Beasley is your power forward, then you have Thomas and Noah to figure out what to do with. This would be made easier if Noah had a more refined true low post game. But he doesn't. I don't see him being a true center even with his size. But I do like Noah's adaptability and I think he could be a serviceable low post player. And I have to wonder if you are stunting his development by asking him to anchor your team in the paint?

With the other pick, you have issues with the Bulls guard stable. You could move Hinrich to the 2 spot but he is small and sort of slow. There will be issues on defense for sure. This scenario moves Gordon further down your bench if everything in the Bulls guard rotation stays the same. Another scenario is to put Gordon at the starting 2 and move Hinrich to the bench or trade him. If the Bulls do select Rose, my instinct is that Gordon should be the actual 2 because he is more explosive and athletic. But as you noted he has shown he can come off the bench and play well which is a coveted commodity in the NBA. But I can't help but think the best move for the Bulls as an organization is to trade the pick for some experience. The team is already loaded with talent and their problems don't necessarily stem from their lack of quality players. It seems to be more about experience, chemistry and, now, coaching.

Saturday, May 3, 2008

Sometimes All You Need Is....

Young legs.

Last night I watched the Atlanta Hawks shock some people. If they didn't shock the world, at least they shocked Boston. And in the end that was enough. You know it really is cool to watch a franchise grow like this. And it also says a lot about what a slight shift in personnel can make for an organization. Especially if you can be honest about the capability of the talent your team currently has, acknowledge its strength, and then set out to address its weaknesses.

Basically what you have here is a team that has just one player on their roster who has ever been in the playoffs. That would be Mike Bibby from when he was with the Sacramento Kings playing with the likes of Peja Stojakovic. His addition to the King lineup has definitely had the desired effect by allowing Joe Johnson to play off the ball more and provide an actual starting point guard with a decent enough basketball IQ on the floor versus the slew of backup guards Atlanta was using previously.

The Hawks also have something a lot of people in the basketball "know" forget to consider, or choose to ignore. The Hawks have young legs. At 30 Mike Bibby also happens to be the oldest player on the roster. That is huge. Especially in a series that has been taken to 7 games. And it showed in game 6. The Hawks got to just about every loose ball there was on the evening. In the third and fourth quarter they got defensive stops just because they were able to beat the Celtics to spots on the floor and get position. The Hawks also didn't settle for jump shots. You see this a lot in games. When players get tired (or sometimes lazy), or "old," they settle for jumpshots instead of driving to the basket in an attempt to create more offensive options. When you take a jumpshot from outside, typically everything sort of stops. People start standing around to see if it goes in. But by driving to the basket everyone has to react. There is the potential for an assist, a better (closer) shot, or a foul. Possession after possession saw Atlanta driving to the basket and forcing the Celtics to react. This accounted for the discrepancy in freethrow attempts between the teams with the Hawks shooting 47 on the night and the Celtics shooting 25.

Honestly, given what I saw on Friday night, the only way I see the Celtics beating Atlanta is if the NBA decides to help them. I don't think this is far outside the realm of possibility. I have no problem contending the NBA decided from a marketing and "We can't stand Mark Cuban," standpoints the Miami Heat was "assisted" to their title in 2006. But barring referee intervention, it is highly possible the Celtic's Big Three whose legs have an average of 11 years on them will be sent packing by a younger, faster, talented and hungrier team who could just be coming into their own at just the right time.

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Say It Isn't So -- Avery Must Go

So my boy KT just sent me an email about the Dallas Mavericks firing Avery Johnson. Okay the Dallas Mavericks have lost two playoff series' in the first round in the past 2 years. So what? Is that a failure. Apparently in Dallas it is.

Over his tenure Johnson amassed a record of 194-70. Impressive by any standard. His playoff record however is debatable at 23-24. But how many coaches have teams that don't even make it to the playoffs? I suppose you could argue based on the results that Avery Johnson has loads of talent but lacks the experience to "seal the deal."

I've thought about this at some length, though and I'd like to offer another perspective. I'd say that the one thing that could have been considered during these 3 full years of Johnson's tenure is team chemistry. From this perspective, the reason for Dallas' early exit in the playoffs started long before Johnson's coaching. We could start with the failure to keep Steve Nash. Cuban's thinking at the time, which I will admit followed conventional wisdom, was that Nash wasn't worth the money needed to re-sign him. Nash's age, his durability, and his liability on the defensive end of the ball, all supported this conventional wisdom. But this move left Dallas without a legitimate point guard ever since. And because they didn't have a true point, conventional wisdom again came into play. In this instance, Cuban re-signs combo guard Jason Terry mainly under the belief that Terry will grow into the point Dallas so desperately needs.

But this doesn't happen. Terry is a scorer with a shoot first, pass later (much, much later, if ever) mentality. Because Terry doesn't become the point Dallas needs and Devin Harris is slow to develop (though he does eventually become a serviceable point) Dallas is now hampered by salary considerations and they lack a point guard with a high basketball IQ.

As a team the Maverick's basketball IQ is very low. Without this ability to make smart decisions in a pinch and down the stretch, not having a legitimate point caught up with them. In order to win championships you need a few things. You need a point guard. You need a presence in the post. You need team defence. You need good coaching. You need an adequate team basketball IQ. And you need team chemistry. I think for most of Johnson's tenure, the Mavericks had at least 3 of these things at any give time. But what they have always lacked was is a high enough basketball IQ and a point guard. It can also be argued that the Mavericks don't really have a presence in the post either. You might be able to win without one or two deficiencies, but not not with 3 or more.

So what I'm saying here is the coach can only control so much of these things. The talent that winds up in the door and on the floor is so much a function of what happens in the front office and not really in his hands. In this case I have to lay the primary reason for the Mavericks woes rest not in Johnson's hands but in Cuban and Nelson's. In my humble opinion. So wherever Johnson winds up next, probably New York might be a good fit, I wish him luck. Somehow I have a feeling Cuban's trigger finger may have the same result for Johnson that the reluctance to re-sign Nash had. If so, Johnson's in line for another Coach of the Year award. Peace.