Sunday, July 22, 2007

Some things not being considered about Greg Oden...

And why he wouldn't have been my first pick in the 2007 NBA Draft...

Look at any of the press concerning Greg Oden following Ohio State's loss to Florida in the NCAA finals this year and you would swear Oden was the second coming of a guy who allegedly walked on water and fed a large crowd of people fish and chips while standing on the top a mountain.

The performance by Oden confirmed in the minds of many top bball pundits Oden's dominance on the collegiate level because he was matched against two of the premiere big men in the country in Joakim Noah and Al Horford. And his stat line was impressive - 25 points, 12 rebounds, 4 blocks in 38 minutes. What these same pundits fail mention however, is the obvious game plan used by the Gators to insure their bigs were present and accounted for in the final moments of the contest. If you watch the game film closely, you will notice two things. First, and most obvious is that Oden rarely takes a contested shot the entire game. Once the ball went to Oden in the paint, or he grabbed an offensive rebound, all of the Florida players cleared the area. The 10 for 15 shooting from Oden came mostly from all these uncontested dunks. The Gator game plan here was obviously to allow Oden to have his points and defend his teammates. So while Oden's numbers look impressive in the box score, his affect on the overall outcome of the game was nil. To put his game in perspective, look at Al Horford's box. Horford played 34 minutes, had 18 points, 12 rebounds, and 2 blocks.

Another point of interest that seems to go unnoticed by many of the pundits pushing Oden's talent is his apparent lack of stamina. In many games I watched during the year and at his predraft workout in Portland, Oden is visibly winded. This concerns me. It would surely bother me if I was about to make the kid one of the richest athletes on the planet. Especially since Oden's predraft workout didn't include any scrimmaging.

I also have some doubts about Oden's overall health. No I am not a doctor. But I am a keen observer and Oden's features and size remind me somewhat of the characteristics you commonly see in great danes. Danes are high energy, athletic animals with poor overall stamina and very short lifespans even with the best physical care. I just read that Oden missed a team USA scrimmage because of a tonsillectomy. This once common surgical procedure, is now very rare. For a doctor to consider it as an option there has to be a frequent recurrence of tonsillitis or other infection such as strep throat. From this I would guess there have been several antibiotic courses which would have destroyed the probiotic flora in Oden's stomach also rendering him more susceptible to infection.

Given all this, it will be interesting to see how his first season in the NBA goes. How will his body respond to the pressure of constant air travel and an 80+ game schedule? And more importantly over the course of an 80 game season, will he be able to stand and go toe to toe with the likes of Yao Ming, Amare Stoudemire, Tim Duncan or Pau Gasol? Only time will tell.

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